“All human things are subject to decay and
when nature summons, monarchs must obey”. These are the opening words of a poem
titled “Mc Flecknoe” by the renowned English poet John Dryden. In the poem, he
flashes back at the death of Father Flecknoe, an Irish Priest noted for
dullness and focuses on the coronation of Shadwell, an equally dull poet whom
he (Dryden) detested.
Egypt’s former
President Hosni Mubarack ruled the country with an iron fist and with much
manipulation for 30 years. He always obtained the percentage he needed for
himself at elections and the number of parliamentary seats he wanted. Mubarack
relied on a strong and loyal ministry to silence opposition to him: when the
uprising that swept him from power began, he thought he could effectively use
the military once more to silence opposition. He was sadly mistaken. The
revolution gathered momentum the more the military crack down. Mubarack was
left with no option than to scamper away from Cairo’s presidential palace. The dream of
converting his country into a dynasty with one of his sons succeeding was
shattered. Not long ago, he was sentenced to life jail and soon after suffered
a stroke which threatens to end his being.
History is
repetitive as Marafa indicates in his fourth letter what happened to coffee
could happen to cocoa. This means that what happened to Mubarack could happen
to Biya. The scenario is very much the same. For the past 22 years Cameroonians
have been clamouring for genuine electoral reforms. It began with the launch of
the first opposition party in Bamenda on May 26, 1990. This was followed
closely by the legalization of political parties. A Ghost Towns and Civil
Disobedience campaign followed. The military clashed with the population and
there were casualties on both sides. It was the Tripartite Conference of
October 11, 1991 which split the opposition and put an end to the Ghost Towns
and Civil Disobedience campaign. That is way October 11 was Biya’s lucky day
until 2011.
Biya is indeed
a lucky man. He took over a country which had since been suppressed and
subjugated by his ‘illustrious predecessor’ Amadou Ahidjo. Cameroonians love
food; they love wine and women. Above all, they cherish football. Each time elections
are flawed, protests take place only for a few hours, if at all. After that,
life returns to normal. Cameroonians love peace so that they can enjoy
themselves and educate their children. Biya knows this and that is why the
emphasis on peace rather than justice. The two ought to go together.
The Biya regime
does not end only at persuading people verbally to be peaceful. There is a
well-trained military and security forces to ensure that peace reigns at all
cost. John Fru Ndi was surprised that the same military which he said
overwhelmingly voted for him in the October 11, 1992 presidential election
later accepted to put him under house arrest and terrorized his supporters.
That surprise was a clear proof of ignorance on how the military functions. Biya
is the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. In the military the principle
is: “Don’t ask questions; do as you are told”.
The Cameroon
military and security forces are not only well trained; they are also well
paid. The security forces have the latitude to take bribes and engage in many
other activities to augment their incomes. Generals and Colonels control huge
budgets. Some are as rich, if not richer than ministers. The president uses
every available opportunity or creates situations to reward soldiers. The
celebration of the Golden Jubilee of the Cameroon Armed Forces that took place
in Bamenda and the forthcoming Golden Jubilee celebration in Buea are
opportunities to shower a lot of financial resources on the military. Whatever
financial problems Cameroon
may experience, the army is never affected. Biya knows that like hungry dogs
the military could turn against him the moment they can’t have their pay.
Divide and Rule
This is not only done in
politics; it is also done in the military. The International Crisis Group which
predicted upheavals in the aftermath of the October 9 presidential election,
pointed out the proliferation of various militias within the country as the
potential source of trouble. The Group had in mind especially the Rapid Intervention
Battalion, BIR whose members are better trained, better equipped and better
paid than members of the regular armed forces. The Group was convinced that in
the event of flawed elections and ‘violent uprising’ the various militias would
turn the guns on each other. It didn’t happen. Biya managed the election with
such expertise that there was very little agitation. He also scored a very high
percentage, 78% almost like Mubarack. Having secured his position for the next
seven years, Biya felt confident enough to permit a biometric system and permit
registration to commence afresh. He hoped though this to assuage the feelings
of the hurt opposition by giving the impression that future elections will be
free, fair and transparent.
But the new
electoral code adopted by parliament caused another fracas. The G7 a group of
opposition political parties that called for an uprising after the proclamation
of last October 9 election results have begun a series of meetings to come up
with a new electoral code which idea it wants to sell to Cameroonians. The
political parties include the SDF, the PAP, the CPP and the CDU.
The Marafa Connection
This is where the political
atmosphere becomes really complicated. Marafa Hamidou Yaya has greatly weakened
the Biya regime through his letters purportedly written from Kondengui. His
arrest created a lot of upheavals in the North. In the rest of the country, he
is perceived as a hero, in spite of the fact that as minister of Territorial
Administration, he was instrumental to Biya’s victories in virtually all
elections. Having fallen out of favour with the regime and in the aftermath of
his humiliating arrest and intimidation, decided to spill the beans. Like Satan
after he was thrown out of heaven, Marafa looks back in anger at all what he
did to sustain the Biya regime and thinks he shouldn’t let his former boss
enjoy any more peace. Whether the regime accepts it or not, the Marafa letters
have inflicted a lot of wounds on its image both internally and externally. He
has raised questions about how petrol money was used, Biya’s attitude to
Anglophones and about the electoral code. The fourth letter which ends by
telling Biya: “In the name of God, go”
unearths something most Cameroonians have since forgotten: The 1995 crash of
the CAMAIR plane, Le Nyong. The effects of the latter are seen in the
agitations that took place when a CPDM delegation went to the North with the
pretext of educating militants on the biometric system of registration but
actually to calm nerves agitated by Marafa’s arrest and incarceration. Even
those who detested Marafa for his arrogance and the exceptional powers he
wielded now sympathize with him.
As MINATD boss,
Marafa virtually controlled the administrative and security network of this
country. Many of those who got to where they are thanks to him still love him
and are ready to stand by him in the midst of adversity. So angry with Biya are
his supporters that they even wish for the invasion of the dreaded Islamic
sect, Boko Haram. The enthusiasm with which Cameroonians welcomed the Marafa
letters is a further manifestation of how much in-built anger there is in
Cameroonians towards the Biya regime. And a s result of the can of worms Marafa
has unleashed, many unpleasant occurrences since forgotten or were making
significant progress towards oblivion are now being recalled. A good example is
the issue of Northerners killed as a result of the April 6, coup. Also being
recalled are the killings by the operational command in Douala
in 2001 and of youths who went on rampage in 5 out of Cameroon’s ten
regions in 2008. Some Cameroonians in the Diaspora recently sued Biya in an
international court in France.
Many are contemplating to sue him in other courts.
Too Much Unchecked Power
Like Gaddafi and Mubarack, Biya has
too many unchecked powers. We have already mentioned the fact that he is
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces besides being head of state. He is the
supreme magistrate and national chairman of the ruling CPDM party. The
judiciary and legislature are subservient to him, meaning that all decisions
emanating from these two powers are masterminded by him. When Biya told Eric
Chinje in an interview that he needed to nod his head and he would go, he was
actualizing what many Cameroonians already know. The presidential budget cannot
be audited. Only he and the Director of the National Hydrocarbons Company, SNH
know how much oil revenue is.
The G11 Factor
It is the much unchecked power of
Biya over the judiciary that anybody who eyes his position is yanked and banged
with impunity. Even after giving a semblance of legitimacy to his action, the
next move contradicts it all. Marafa was taken to Kondengui following the
decision of the Mfoundi High Court. It necessitated another court decision to
move him to SED. Except it was taken in secret, Marafa was taken to the
Gendarmerie headquarters without any court decision. When a person runs a
country as if it were a village provision store, giving an account to nobody,
the outcome is always disastrous. The problem with every dictator is that he
always thinks that what has happened to others cannot happen to him Biya, like
Mubarack is not only antagonizing a large proportion of the country, but also
exposing his family to danger as Gaddafi and Mubarack did. Most of the so-called
G11 members now in detention were highly trusted collaborators. Biya should
know that there is life after power. We understand that his retirement
residence has been constructed behind the U.S Embassy in Yaounde. He deserves rest and his plan to have
Rene Emmanuel Sadi succeed him is born out of that desire to spend the rest of
his days in Cameroon
after quitting power if ever he will do it. But let him take note of one thing.
If he does not make up his mind, others will make if up for him.
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