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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Mubarack’s End Foretells Biya’s Fate


 “All human things are subject to decay and when nature summons, monarchs must obey”. These are the opening words of a poem titled “Mc Flecknoe” by the renowned English poet John Dryden. In the poem, he flashes back at the death of Father Flecknoe, an Irish Priest noted for dullness and focuses on the coronation of Shadwell, an equally dull poet whom he (Dryden) detested.
Egypt’s former President Hosni Mubarack ruled the country with an iron fist and with much manipulation for 30 years. He always obtained the percentage he needed for himself at elections and the number of parliamentary seats he wanted. Mubarack relied on a strong and loyal ministry to silence opposition to him: when the uprising that swept him from power began, he thought he could effectively use the military once more to silence opposition. He was sadly mistaken. The revolution gathered momentum the more the military crack down. Mubarack was left with no option than to scamper away from Cairo’s presidential palace. The dream of converting his country into a dynasty with one of his sons succeeding was shattered. Not long ago, he was sentenced to life jail and soon after suffered a stroke which threatens to end his being.
History is repetitive as Marafa indicates in his fourth letter what happened to coffee could happen to cocoa. This means that what happened to Mubarack could happen to Biya. The scenario is very much the same. For the past 22 years Cameroonians have been clamouring for genuine electoral reforms. It began with the launch of the first opposition party in Bamenda on May 26, 1990. This was followed closely by the legalization of political parties. A Ghost Towns and Civil Disobedience campaign followed. The military clashed with the population and there were casualties on both sides. It was the Tripartite Conference of October 11, 1991 which split the opposition and put an end to the Ghost Towns and Civil Disobedience campaign. That is way October 11 was Biya’s lucky day until 2011.
Biya is indeed a lucky man. He took over a country which had since been suppressed and subjugated by his ‘illustrious predecessor’ Amadou Ahidjo. Cameroonians love food; they love wine and women. Above all, they cherish football. Each time elections are flawed, protests take place only for a few hours, if at all. After that, life returns to normal. Cameroonians love peace so that they can enjoy themselves and educate their children. Biya knows this and that is why the emphasis on peace rather than justice. The two ought to go together.
The Biya regime does not end only at persuading people verbally to be peaceful. There is a well-trained military and security forces to ensure that peace reigns at all cost. John Fru Ndi was surprised that the same military which he said overwhelmingly voted for him in the October 11, 1992 presidential election later accepted to put him under house arrest and terrorized his supporters. That surprise was a clear proof of ignorance on how the military functions. Biya is the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. In the military the principle is: “Don’t ask questions; do as you are told”.
The Cameroon military and security forces are not only well trained; they are also well paid. The security forces have the latitude to take bribes and engage in many other activities to augment their incomes. Generals and Colonels control huge budgets. Some are as rich, if not richer than ministers. The president uses every available opportunity or creates situations to reward soldiers. The celebration of the Golden Jubilee of the Cameroon Armed Forces that took place in Bamenda and the forthcoming Golden Jubilee celebration in Buea are opportunities to shower a lot of financial resources on the military. Whatever financial problems Cameroon may experience, the army is never affected. Biya knows that like hungry dogs the military could turn against him the moment they can’t have their pay.

Divide and Rule
This is not only done in politics; it is also done in the military. The International Crisis Group which predicted upheavals in the aftermath of the October 9 presidential election, pointed out the proliferation of various militias within the country as the potential source of trouble. The Group had in mind especially the Rapid Intervention Battalion, BIR whose members are better trained, better equipped and better paid than members of the regular armed forces. The Group was convinced that in the event of flawed elections and ‘violent uprising’ the various militias would turn the guns on each other. It didn’t happen. Biya managed the election with such expertise that there was very little agitation. He also scored a very high percentage, 78% almost like Mubarack. Having secured his position for the next seven years, Biya felt confident enough to permit a biometric system and permit registration to commence afresh. He hoped though this to assuage the feelings of the hurt opposition by giving the impression that future elections will be free, fair and transparent.
But the new electoral code adopted by parliament caused another fracas. The G7 a group of opposition political parties that called for an uprising after the proclamation of last October 9 election results have begun a series of meetings to come up with a new electoral code which idea it wants to sell to Cameroonians. The political parties include the SDF, the PAP, the CPP and the CDU.

The Marafa Connection
This is where the political atmosphere becomes really complicated. Marafa Hamidou Yaya has greatly weakened the Biya regime through his letters purportedly written from Kondengui. His arrest created a lot of upheavals in the North. In the rest of the country, he is perceived as a hero, in spite of the fact that as minister of Territorial Administration, he was instrumental to Biya’s victories in virtually all elections. Having fallen out of favour with the regime and in the aftermath of his humiliating arrest and intimidation, decided to spill the beans. Like Satan after he was thrown out of heaven, Marafa looks back in anger at all what he did to sustain the Biya regime and thinks he shouldn’t let his former boss enjoy any more peace. Whether the regime accepts it or not, the Marafa letters have inflicted a lot of wounds on its image both internally and externally. He has raised questions about how petrol money was used, Biya’s attitude to Anglophones and about the electoral code. The fourth letter which ends by telling Biya: “In the name of God, go” unearths something most Cameroonians have since forgotten: The 1995 crash of the CAMAIR plane, Le Nyong. The effects of the latter are seen in the agitations that took place when a CPDM delegation went to the North with the pretext of educating militants on the biometric system of registration but actually to calm nerves agitated by Marafa’s arrest and incarceration. Even those who detested Marafa for his arrogance and the exceptional powers he wielded now sympathize with him.
As MINATD boss, Marafa virtually controlled the administrative and security network of this country. Many of those who got to where they are thanks to him still love him and are ready to stand by him in the midst of adversity. So angry with Biya are his supporters that they even wish for the invasion of the dreaded Islamic sect, Boko Haram. The enthusiasm with which Cameroonians welcomed the Marafa letters is a further manifestation of how much in-built anger there is in Cameroonians towards the Biya regime. And a s result of the can of worms Marafa has unleashed, many unpleasant occurrences since forgotten or were making significant progress towards oblivion are now being recalled. A good example is the issue of Northerners killed as a result of the April 6, coup. Also being recalled are the killings by the operational command in Douala in 2001 and of youths who went on rampage in 5 out of Cameroon’s ten regions in 2008. Some Cameroonians in the Diaspora recently sued Biya in an international court in France. Many are contemplating to sue him in other courts.

Too Much Unchecked Power
Like Gaddafi and Mubarack, Biya has too many unchecked powers. We have already mentioned the fact that he is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces besides being head of state. He is the supreme magistrate and national chairman of the ruling CPDM party. The judiciary and legislature are subservient to him, meaning that all decisions emanating from these two powers are masterminded by him. When Biya told Eric Chinje in an interview that he needed to nod his head and he would go, he was actualizing what many Cameroonians already know. The presidential budget cannot be audited. Only he and the Director of the National Hydrocarbons Company, SNH know how much oil revenue is.

The G11 Factor
It is the much unchecked power of Biya over the judiciary that anybody who eyes his position is yanked and banged with impunity. Even after giving a semblance of legitimacy to his action, the next move contradicts it all. Marafa was taken to Kondengui following the decision of the Mfoundi High Court. It necessitated another court decision to move him to SED. Except it was taken in secret, Marafa was taken to the Gendarmerie headquarters without any court decision. When a person runs a country as if it were a village provision store, giving an account to nobody, the outcome is always disastrous. The problem with every dictator is that he always thinks that what has happened to others cannot happen to him Biya, like Mubarack is not only antagonizing a large proportion of the country, but also exposing his family to danger as Gaddafi and Mubarack did. Most of the so-called G11 members now in detention were highly trusted collaborators. Biya should know that there is life after power. We understand that his retirement residence has been constructed behind the U.S Embassy in Yaounde. He deserves rest and his plan to have Rene Emmanuel Sadi succeed him is born out of that desire to spend the rest of his days in Cameroon after quitting power if ever he will do it. But let him take note of one thing. If he does not make up his mind, others will make if up for him.

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