The Uncertainties Today:
Cameroon
as a nation has a checkered history of nation building. As any nation, Cameroon has at
times witnessed explosive situations that threatened the very foundations of
the nation. The early independence struggles with UPC leading up to the
introduction of multiparty politics in the 1990 were episodes that the
authorities would gladly like to put behind them. The Biya regime went through
the test of leadership in the early 90s with operation ghost towns and the dire
economic consequences that emanated from it. This too came at the heels of a
scorching economic crises and the devaluation of the CFA franc. But since all
these issues were isolated and happened at different times, the regime was able
to handle them either through prevailing circumstances, negotiations, diversion
or brute force. And in each case public order was finally restored. This has
given the notion that Cameroon
is a peaceful country and the regime barons have thumbed their chests on every
occasion to show to the world how Cameroonians are peace loving people. This
however, does not cancel the fact that there has always been and there is still
social and political dissention brewing in other quarters, though in subdued
tones.
The February 2008 strikes
that paralysed almost half of the country was another incident that put the
Biya regime to test. The situation was becoming uncontrollable and the Head of
State, as Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces hit his hand on the table and
brute force was used to restore order and preserve republican institutions.
Many lost their lives, others their life savings and others were arrested and
thrown to jail. That was then and it could be called another isolated incident
as the regime could concentrate on it from one angle and trash the problem.
Today there are so many
uncertainties, all pregnant with bad omen that the Biya regime is confronting.
The regime is virtually on its knees as it has to fight a war on so many
fronts. There is the Operation Epervier that is arresting regime barons and
sentencing them to prison terms that are attracting the wrath of a cross
section of the population. There is the imminent fuel price hikes with threats
from transporters to embark on a nationwide endless strikes. This is happening
at a time when the population is worried about the whereabouts of the First
Lady Chantal Biya. Unfortunately for the regime, the Government Spokesperson,
Issa Tchiroma Bakary who could have doused the fire is himself hooked up in
varied embezzlement allegations. Let us examine the different uncertainties and
analyze their potency in breeding dissention and perhaps bringing the regime to
its knees.
Operation Epervier Arrests/Sentencing
The ongoing Operation Sparrow Hawk that is arresting
former regime barons and incarcerating them is dealing a deadly blow on the
reputation of the regime. Many social analysts are aghast about how an entire
regime can be made up of white collar thieves. And that if those who have been
incarcerated worked closely with the Head of State and he continuously gave
them his confidence for several years, then he has his own part of the
responsibility. Equally it poses a moral question about those who the state
entrust responsibilities onto and the institutions where they studied and their
tribal affiliation.
Marafa Hamidou
Yaya, former Secretary General at the Presidency, former Minister of State,
Minister of Territorial Administration and Decentralization was arrested
alongside former Prime Minister Ephraim Inoni on April 16, 2012 and
incarcerated. Before their arrests other regime top notch personalities had
been arrested on charges of corruption and embezzlement. But the arrest of
Marafa seemed to be the last straw that broke the camel’s back as he fired open
letters from his prison cells that seriously exposed and weakened the regime.
In order t o pre-empt him from further
exposing the regime, he was transferred to SED where there is a tight security
network around him. The regime has decided to precipitate Marafa’s trial but
this too seems to have boomerang as Marafa is receiving more popularity in
court akin to that reserved for sitting Heads of State. The population that
turns-up in court each day Marafa appears in court is testimony of his
popularity and this does not augur well for the regime, especially as the
population addresses Marafa Mr. President and tasking the regime to set free
their president. This too is happening at a time when a parody of justice
sentenced Zaccheus Forjindam to a life jail term. Thus many are quick to point
that the precipitation of Marafa’s trial is equally to slam him a life jail
term. In spite of the apparent calm and serenity being manifested by the
regime, there seemed to be total fear of the unknown that can degenerate
because of the arrests and sentencing of further regime barons.
Fuel Price Hike
The scars of the February 2008 strikes that emanated
from fuel price hikes are still very visible to government and a repeat
scenario is imminent. Government for the past months has been preparing public
opinion for an imminent fuel price increase. Meetings have multiplied with
transport syndicates but the message is not certainly going down well as the
syndicates each in its own corner are firing warning shots of such a move. This
is putting government at a very tight corner, given that the ghost of the
February 2008 is still haunting government. Worst of all an increase in fuel
prices invariably increases the prices of everything and the population that is
already being hit by abject poverty may not take it kindly. The Arab Spring
that took away the Presidents of Tunisia
and Egypt
started with increases in the prices of basic commodities.
Whereabouts Of Chantal Biya
Cameroon’s
First Lady, Chantal Biya has rightly or wrongly captured the attention of
Cameroonians in her public outings due to her dynamism and glamour that
radiates happiness. It has become second nature for her to accompany her
husband the Head of State, Paul Biya to all public occasions. She too being the
founder and co-founder of many associations is always criss-crossing Cameroon and
the international scene to participate in events. And everywhere Chantal Biya
is there is happiness. Cameroonians last saw and commune with the First Lady on
March 8, 2012 during celebrations marking the International Women’s Day. The
First Lady chaired the march past at the 20 May Boulevard and later on
participated in a gala night at the Hilton Hotel where she sang and danced with
the women. But since then no sign of the First Lady. Cameroonians were
disturbed when on May 20, 2012 the Head of State appeared alone to chair celebrations
marking Cameroon’s
National Day. The absence of the First Lady attracted discussion but was waved
aside as an unnecessary appendage by constitutionalists who argued strongly
that she is not part of state protocol. But the First Lady’s absence in public
was further exacerbated when during the State Banquet that took place at the Unity Palace
that night she was nowhere to be found.
Many were those who
postulated that the First Lady had gone to see her children who are schooling
in Switzerland.
Others even rumoured that she had gone to take care of her mother who was sick
and receiving medical care abroad. This version was more tenable as the mother
was actually abroad. But later on the mother of Chantal Biya returned to Cameroon
without Chantal. Questions again filled the air when the Head of State, Paul
Biya travelled without Chantal to Nyabizan in the Ntem Valley Division to
launch the Memve’ele Hydroelectric Project. Mme Chantal Biya each year presides
over the graduation ceremony of the Nursery and Primary School in the
Presidency, Le Coccinelle, but this year she was not the one.
What is intriguing is the
fact that not even the international media is mentioning her whereabouts. And
with various postulations about her whereabouts hanging in the air, the regime
is uncomfortable with most of the interpretations given about Chantal Biya’s
public absence.
Imminent Cabinet Shake-up
Paul Biya has finally given August as the deadline
for the evaluation of the roadmaps of his ministers. This is an indication that
after the evaluation, most of them would be shown the exit door. The Biya
government is confronted with many problems that can spark social unrest. Since
the regime governs through diversionary methods and using scapegoats, one thing
that is certain is that some ministers would be sacrificed to please the
population. When government would have announced the fuel price increase and
the population is upbeat, then a cabinet shake-up or the arrest of some
ministers, especially those hated by the population will occur to calm down
tensions. Nevertheless, there is no gainsaying that total uncertainty prevails
in Cameroon
today and both the regime and the population do not know which direction things
will take in the days ahead.
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